Nepal’s disaster experts and humanitarian organisations are warning that the country remains dangerously unprepared for the next major earthquake, particularly in the western region, where a high-magnitude event is considered overdue. Despite policy reforms and reconstruction efforts following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, gaps in preparedness, infrastructure resilience, and local-level implementation continue to leave millions at risk.
Geologists have long cautioned that Nepal lies on one of the world’s most active tectonic collision zones. The western part of the country contains a significant “seismic gap,” where no major earthquake has occurred since 1505 A.D. Experts say accumulated energy in this zone could trigger a magnitude-8 or higher quake at any time.
Since the 2015 earthquake in Nepal, the government has established various frameworks to handle disasters, including the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Framework and the National Disaster Response Framework. Within the last decade, most of the reconstruction within the 14 districts most affected by the earthquake has been completed, including a larger number of improved standard homes. In addition, many awareness programs, school safety programs, and community-based disaster preparedness training have been developed as well.
Despite the development of these programs, disaster preparedness levels across the country are inconsistent, as indicated by assessments conducted with disaster-affected communities and disaster-response agencies. Local governments, which are expected to be the first responders during a disaster, report having limited resources and insufficient technical assistance. Many community disaster preparedness plans have not been implemented, and the enforcement of building codes remains very weak, particularly in the high-risk districts of western Nepal, where most housing is of the traditional non-resistant type.
Families continue to be vulnerable; following the 2015 quake, many thousands of people were displaced, and many of the affected families continue to live with the painful memories of that experience. The recent November 2023 Jajarkot earthquake resulted in heavy casualties (154 people died), and over 60,000 houses were damaged. Helps us analyse the situation of our nation.
Organisations that focus on humanitarian aid have highlighted how the response systems of Nepal regarding disasters continue to be geared mainly toward reactive responses. They are advocating for disaster management to be localised more effectively, allowing local governments to take responsibility for the management of disaster response and also providing them with the opportunity to share resources, coordinate plans, and use a community-based approach in responding to disasters.
To enhance this early coordination, accountability and responsiveness to the needs of the most vulnerable people (children, women and those with disabilities), the "Combined Relief Approach" is being piloted in partnership with local government.
Earthquake experts have stated that there will be another significant earthquake, saying it’s not a matter of if, but when. They have also stated that many humanitarian aid agencies around the world are cutting back their funding and have warned governments about the need to take disaster preparation seriously.